The chart above (click to zoom) shows registered deaths in the UK according to the ONS up to 10 April (note that during holiday periods, some deaths may be “carried over” to the next week). The year 2020 is on the way to passing 2018 as the worst year of recent times, with the fortnight to 10 April being particularly bad.
The difference between the red and black lines (highlighted in yellow) indicates deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate (this includes deaths “with” as well as “from” COVID-19, although other data suggests that in most cases COVID-19 would be the actual cause of death). A clear COVID-19 spike is visible.
The jump in the red line is also disturbing, however. The the red line shows deaths excluding deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. The jump in the red line may indicate:
- COVID-19 deaths where no test was done (unlikely, because the records show only a slight increase in deaths by non-COVID respiratory illness); or
- deaths from other causes exacerbated by lack of hospital beds; or
- deaths due to the current lockdown itself (e.g. suicides).
At present, I have no way of deciding which of those three options are the correct ones. Hopefully both COVID-19 and those other factors will pass soon (the IHME model suggests that COVID-19 deaths in the UK reached their peak on 21 April).
I should note that CNBC has also looked at this dataset, but they’ve compared this year against an average period that excludes 2018 and 2019. I don’t know why they did that.